Red Sox need Rafael Devers more than ever, but does he have another level?

Boston would bow out against Houston in the American League Division Series that October, but through no fault of Devers’. The rookie hit .364 (4 for 11) with two homers — becoming the youngest player to go yard in the playoffs in franchise history — and drove in five runs in the four-game series defeat.

The following season, Devers put up respectable totals of 21 homers and 66 RBIs — of course, that 2018 team didn’t have to lean on Devers the way they do now. Having Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and company made his life much easier and allowed him to ease into life as an everyday big leaguer.

In the ’18 postseason, Devers also didn’t disappoint with a .294 average (10 for 34) a home run and nine RBIs. His homer and three of those RBIs came in Boston’s 4-1 Game 5 win in Houston to clinch a spot in the World Series. 

Since then, Devers has been a consistent contributor at the plate and the anchor of the team’s lineup. It seems like a foregone conclusion to pencil him in for about 30 homers and 100 RBIs during the course of a (healthy) season. As a lifetime .280 hitter, he isn’t a consistent threat for a batting title most years, but he certainly carries his own weight at the dish in that regard. 

(And speaking of his weight… for all the concerns about Devers’ durability, he’s played in no fewer than 141 games in every non-COVID campaign after 2018. In 2019 and 2021, Devers played 156 games. Last season, he played in 153. Impressive.)

Entering this season, the expectations are no different: Devers should lead the team in homers and RBIs once again. But is it possible we could see his numbers jump from All-Star level to MVP level?

A fellow left-handed Red Sox slugger who was succeeded by Devers could be a good comparison in that regard.

David Ortiz went from good to great and had the best seasons of his career between ages 28 and 31 around the decade mark of his career. In particular, Ortiz hit a franchise-record 54 homers in 2006 — his 10th season overall in the majors, but his seventh as a full-time player.

The 2024 campaign will be the seventh full season for the 27-year-old Devers, who has finished top 15 in AL MVP voting four times — but never higher than 12th (in 2019). Could 2024 be the year he breaks into the top 10 or top five?

If the Red Sox are going to contend for anything this season, they’ll almost certainly need him to be in MVP form. His bat is certainly capable of putting him in the conversation of the best offensive players in the AL. 

One area where Devers is not among the best in the game, though, is on defense.

Devers committed at least 20 errors in three of his first four full seasons (he had 14 in 57 games in 2020) — leading the league with 24 in 2018. After a bounce-back year that saw him commit just 14 with a .964 fielding percentage over 138 games at third in 2022, Devers dipped last season with 19 errors and saw his fielding percentage drop to .949.

Despite his inconsistencies, I wouldn’t call Devers’ defense a major liability. I remember remarking at the progress of Devers as an everyday third baseman several times over the past few years. He’s capable of flashing the leather and making big time throws, and he’s certainly come a long way from the days of gritting your teeth every time a ball gets hit his way.

That being the case, Devers’ structure and style of play makes him more likely to finish his career as a designated hitter or first baseman. But we’re still a ways from that point, in my opinion. 

After all, Devers’ biggest contributions will almost certainly come on the offensive side of the ball. If he can look more like the serviceable defender he was in 2022 again this year, I think that’s all you can reasonably ask for. 

Devers has (knock on wood) been a fairly dependable player in terms of health to begin his career… but I’ll always cringe a little when I watch his violent, boom-or-bust swing… especially when it’s a bust with a hearty whiff. 

If his body holds up and he remains motivated, I think there’s a good chance we see Devers take another step forward. With the way things have shaped up for the Red Sox of late, he may be one of the few bright spots in the next couple of years…